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Professor Neil Edwards

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Profile summary

  • Central Academic Staff
  • Professor of Earth System Science
  • Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics
  • School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences
  • neil.edwards

Professional biography

Climate and environmental change breaks the statistical predictability that underlies insurance against natural disasters, questions the regulation of borrowing and investment between generations, disturbs the ecological systems that support the global population and threatens the stability of nations. 

The impacts and feedbacks are dynamic, complex and multi-scale in space and time, they cannot be properly managed without an evolving dialogue that thoroughly explores the interface between environmental and socio-economic change. 

My research exploits dynamically simplified Earth system models and complementary approaches to bring the understanding of processes and feedbacks between natural and human systems and sub-systems to the fore.

Through a series of major interdisciplinary consortium projects, including GENIE and ERMITAGE, I have played a leading role in the integration of modelling and observational paleoclimate research and in the integration of detailed Earth system models with complex macroeconomic and energy technology forecasting models for the purposes of environmental policy assessments. 

To date (Nov. 2020) I have been instrumental in raising over £20m of funding for Earth-system and integrated assessment modelling research and published over 90 refereed articles in a range of related fields, including 8 in Science, Nature and Cell Press journals (H=37 Google Scholar November 2020).

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring 
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time. (TS Eliot)

Research interests

Climate Dynamics, Integrated Assessment Modelling, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics.

Teaching interests

I have worked on a number of environment-related modules and recently chaired two interdisciplinary third-level modules in presentation, U316 The environmental web and S396 Ecosystems. I also chaired the production of the third-level Terrestrial Ecosystems module S397. 

Research groups

NameTypeParent Unit
Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research (CEPSAR)CentreFaculty of Science

 

Externally funded projects

Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation - Phase 2
RoleStart dateEnd dateFunding source
Lead01 Jun 202131 May 2026LEVERHULME The Leverhulme Trust

The Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation (LC3M) will address one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in the 21st Century: global climate change. Our vision for LC3M is to develop the underlying science for safely removing large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere to cool the planet and mitigate ocean acidification through enhanced rock weathering, a process accelerating rates of atmospheric CO2 removal and nutrient release for plant growth. Ultimately, this project will develop humanity’s capacity for sustainable removal of CO2 from the air through deployment of enhanced weathering on meaningful scales in forests and biofuel croplands, and an understanding of its Earth system feedbacks, ethics and societal impacts. No major RCUK funder has supported a disruptive thinking collaborative venture of this scope and ambition which demands forging links between disciplines and drawing together leading carbon cycle modellers, biologists, soil scientists, and social psychologists and moral philosophers.

Plausible policy pathways to Paris
RoleStart dateEnd dateFunding source
Lead31 Oct 201631 Jul 2018NERC Natural Environment Research Council

The Paris agreement commits nations to pursuing efforts to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. This represents a level of transformation of the socio-economic and energy systems that substantially exceeds the scenarios that have been found using most conventional integrated assessment models (IAMs) based on equilibrium assumptions. Such strong mitigation also violates the pattern scaling assumptions used to derive environmental impacts in IAMs because of the rapid reversal in emissions growth. We will use a new, fully dynamic IAM that does not rely on equilibrium or pattern scaling assumptions to provide a set of more realistic dynamic pathways to reach the 1.5 degree target. The assessment will identify policy options and the degree of negative emissions required.

Resilience and foresight for global environmental change in Brazil: Complexity across scales in the Energy-Water-Food Nexus
RoleStart dateEnd dateFunding source
Lead01 Oct 201630 Mar 2020ESRC Economic and Social Research Council

* Create a new methodology to assess the cross-sectoral complexity and uncertainty involved in the food-water-energy nexus across scales, for Brazil in a context of global environmental and economic change. * Develop a framework of analysis and policy engagement to effectively inform and support the policy cycle in Brazil to reach objectives of sustainable development in a context of global environmental and economic change. * Develop robust quantitative evidence and novel research tools and methods embedded in highly detailed new generation computational models, which will be made available to researchers in academia, industry, civil society and government, in both the UK and Brazil. * Transfer skills, technology and knowledge to the Brazilian academic and policy community to effectively inform and guide a continued sustainability transition * Engage with the policy process and cycle to determine the role of appropriate policy instruments and how they can be best implemented, to improve resilience of the food-water-energy nexus in Brazil to global environmental and economic change. * Carry out successful demonstration of sustainability projects on the ground in Santa Catarina with key sectoral and regional policy institutions and networks whose activities impact and have influence over the nexus challenges.

Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
RoleStart dateEnd dateFunding source
Lead01 Jun 201631 May 2021LEVERHULME The Leverhulme Trust

he Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation (LC3M) will address one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in the 21st Century: global climate change. Our vision for LC3M is to develop the underlying science for safely removing large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere to cool the planet and mitigate ocean acidification through enhanced rock weathering, a process accelerating rates of atmospheric CO2 removal and nutrient release for plant growth. Ultimately, this project will develop humanity’s capacity for sustainable removal of CO2 from the air through deployment of enhanced weathering on meaningful scales in forests and biofuel croplands, and an understanding of its Earth system feedbacks, ethics and societal impacts. No major RCUK funder has supported a disruptive thinking collaborative venture of this scope and ambition which demands forging links between disciplines and drawing together leading carbon cycle modellers, biologists, soil scientists, and social psychologists and moral philosophers.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of damage functions in IAMs
RoleStart dateEnd dateFunding source
Lead01 Mar 201631 Aug 2016University of Exeter

The project will carry out a scoping study of how climate impacts (damages functions) could be better incorporated into advanced macroeconomic models. In particular, the study will consider the diffusion of impacts across: • time • space • sectors resulting from localised impacts in regions that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The study will consider which local impacts might have greatest global impact and therefore merit most detailed attention in further work.

Quantifying Uncertainty in ANTarctic Ice Sheet instability
RoleStart dateEnd dateFunding source
Co-investigator01 Aug 201531 Jan 2016University of Exeter

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica. If this is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are either too low in spatial resolution to explicitly resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modeling uncertainties. The proposed work brings together and analyses two new datasets that complement each other in model complexity – a large ensemble generated with a low resolution model, and a small ensemble from a high resolution model – by constructing a new emulator of the relationship between them.

Publications

Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations of the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation (2024)
Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, Andrey; Edwards, Neil R. and Rahmstorf, Stefan
Climate of the Past ((Early Access))

Potential pension fund losses should not deter high-income countries from bold climate action (2023-07-19)
Semieniuk, Gregor; Chancel, Lucas; Saïsset, Eulalie; Holden, Philip B.; Mercure, Jean-Francois and Edwards, Neil R.
Joule, 7(7) (pp. 1383-1387)

PALEO-PGEM-Series: A spatial time series of the global climate over the last 5 million years (Plio-Pleistocene) (2023-07)
Barreto, Elisa; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R. and Rangel, Thiago F.
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 32(7) (pp. 1034-1045)

Reply to: When did mammoths go extinct? (2022-11-30)
Wang, Yucheng; Prohaska, Ana; Dong, Haoran; Alberti, Adriana; Alsos, Inger Greve; Beilman, David W.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Cao, Jialu; Cherezova, Anna A.; Coissac, Eric; De Sanctis, Bianca; Denoeud, France; Dockter, Christoph; Durbin, Richard; Edwards, Mary E.; Edwards, Neil R.; Esdale, Julie; Fedorov, Grigory B.; Fernandez-Guerra, Antonio; Froese, Duane G.; Gusarova, Galina; Haile, James; Holden, Philip B.; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Kjær, Kurt H.; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Lammers, Youri; Larsen, Nicolaj Krog; Macleod, Ruairidh; Mangerud, Jan; McColl, Hugh; Merkel, Marie Kristine Føreid; Money, Daniel; Möller, Per; Nogués-Bravo, David; Orlando, Ludovic; Owens, Hannah Lois; Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Racimo, Fernando; Rahbek, Carsten; Rasic, Jeffrey T.; Rouillard, Alexandra; Ruter, Anthony H.; Skadhauge, Birgitte; Svendsen, John Inge; Tikhonov, Alexei; Vinner, Lasse; Wincker, Patrick; Xing, Yingchun; Zhang, Yubin; Meltzer, David J. and Willerslev, Eske
Nature, 612 (E4-E6)

Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations (2022-09-08)
Vakilifard, Negar; Williams, Richard G.; Holden, Philip; Turner, Katherine; Edwards, Neil R. and Beerling, David J.
Biogeosciences, 19 (pp. 4249-4265)

Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies (2022-06)
Semieniuk, G.; Holden, Philip B.; Mercure, J.-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H.; Jobson, K.; Vercoulen, P.; Chewpreecha, U.; Edwards, Neil R. and Viñuales, J. E.
Nature Climate Change, 12(6) (pp. 532-538)

Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom (2022-05)
Kantzas, E. P.; Val Martin, M.; Lomas, M. R.; Eufrasio, R. M.; Renforth, P.; Lewis, A. L.; Taylor, L. L.; Mercure, J.-F.; Pollitt, H.; Vercoulen, P. V.; Vakilifard, N.; Holden, P.; Edwards, N.; Koh, L.; Pidgeon, N. F.; Banwart, S. A. and Beerling, D. J.
Nature Geoscience, 15(5) (pp. 382-389)

Environmental and health impacts of atmospheric CO2 removal by enhanced rock weathering depend on nations’ energy mix (2022-05)
Eufrasio, Rafael M.; Kantzas, Euripides P.; Edwards, Neil. R.; Holden, Philip B.; Pollitt, Hector; Mercure, Jean-Francois; Koh, S. C. Lenny and Beerling, David J.
Communications Earth & Environment, 3, Article 106(1)

Quantifying the Impact of Bedrock Topography Uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier Projections for This Century (2022-03-28)
Wernecke, Andreas; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R. and Cornford, Stephen L.
Geophysical Research Letters, 49, Article e2021GL096589(6)

The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ (2022)
Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, Andrey; Robinson, Alexander and Edwards, Neil R.
Geoscientific Model Development, 15(14) (pp. 5905-5948)

Late Quaternary dynamics of Arctic biota from ancient environmental genomics (2021-12-02)
Wang, Yucheng; Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Alsos, Inger Greve; De Sanctis, Bianca; Racimo, Fernando; Prohaska, Ana; Colssac, Eric; Owens, Hannah Lois; Merkel, Marie Kristine Føreid; Fernandez-Guerra, Antonio; Rouillard, Alexandra; Lammers, Youri; Alberti, Adriana; Denoeud, France; Money, Daniel; Ruter, Anthony H.; McColl, Hugh; Larsen, Nicolaj Krog; Cherezova, Anna A.; Edwards, Mary E.; Fedorov, Grigory B.; Halle, James; Orlando, Ludovic; Vinner, Lasse; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Bellman, David W.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Cao, Jialu; Dockter, Christoph; Esdale, Julie; Gusarova, Galina; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Mangerud, Jan; Rasic, Jeffrey T.; Skadhauge, Birgitte; Svendsen, John Inge; Tikhonov, Alexei; Wincker, Patrick; Xing, Yingchun; Zhang, Yubin; Froese, Duane G.; Rahbek, Carsten; Nogués-Bravo, David; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Durbin, Richard; Meltzer, David J.; Kjaer, Kurt H.; Möller, Per and Willerslev, Eske
Nature, 600 (pp. 86-92)

The role of habitat fragmentation in Pleistocene megafauna extinction in Eurasia (2021-11)
Mondanaro, Alessandro; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Melchionna, Marina; Maiorano, Luigi; Di Marco, Moreno; Edwards, Neil; Holden, Philip; Castiglione, Silvia; Rook, Lorenzo and Raia, Pasquale
Ecography, 44(11) (pp. 1619-1630)

Tectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution (2021-06-29)
Thomson, James R.; Holden, Philip B.; Anand, Pallavi; Edwards, Neil R.; Porchier, Cécile A. and Harris, Nigel B. W.
Nature Communications, Article 4022(12)

An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank (2021-06-01)
Turchin, P.; Currie, T.; Collins, C.; Levine, J.; Oyebamiji, O.; Edwards, N.; Holden, P.; Hoyer, D.; Feeney, K.; François, P. and Whitehouse, H.
The Holocene, 31(6) (pp. 1055-1065)

Low‐carbon transition risks for finance (2021-01)
Semieniuk, Gregor; Campiglio, Emanuele; Mercure, Jean‐Francois; Volz, Ulrich and Edwards, Neil R.
WIREs Climate Change, 12, Article e678(1)

The role of enhanced rock weathering deployment with agriculture in limiting future warming and protecting coral reefs (2021)
Vakilifard, Negar; Kantzas, Euripides P.; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B. and Beerling, David J.
Environmental Research Letters, 16, Article 94005(9)

Reframing incentives for climate policy action (2021)
Mercure, J.-F.; Salas, P.; Vercoulen, P.; Semieniuk, G.; Lam, A.; Pollitt, H.; Holden, P. B.; Vakilifard, N.; Chewpreecha, U.; Edwards, N. R. and Vinuales, J. E.
Nature Energy, 6 (pp. 1133-1143)

A major change in rate of climate niche envelope evolution during hominid history (2020-11-20)
Mondanaro, Alessandro; Melchiona, Marina; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Castiglione, Silvia; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Carotenuto, Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi; Modafferi, Maria; Serio, Carmela; Diniz-Filho, Josè A.F.; Rangel, Thiago; Rook, Lorenzo; O'Higgins, Paul; Spikins, Penny; Profico, Antonia and Raia, Pasquale
iScience, 23, Article 101693(11)

Past extinctions of Homo species coincided with increased vulnerability to climatic change (2020-10-15)
Raia, Pasquale; Mondanaro, Alessandro; Melchionna, Marina; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Diniz-Filho, Jose A F; Rangel, Thiago F; Holden, Philip B; Carotenuto, Francesco; Edwards, Neil R; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Profico, Antonio; Maiorano, Luigi; Castiglione, Silvia; Serio, Carmela and Rook, Lorenzo
One Earth, 3(4) (pp. 480-490)

Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands (2020-07-09)
Beerling, David J.; Kantzas, Euripides P.; Lomas, Mark R.; Wade, Peter; Eufrasio, Rafael M.; Renforth, Phil; Sarkar, Binoy; Andrews, M. Grace; James, Rachael H.; Pearce, Christopher R.; Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollitt, Hector; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Khanna, Madhu; Koh, Lenny; Quegan, Shaun; Pidgeon, Nick F.; Janssens, Ivan A.; Hansen, James and Banwart, Steven A.
Nature, 583 (pp. 242-248)

Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data (2020-05-05)
Wernecke, Andreas; Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Nias, Isabel and Edwards, Neil
The Cryosphere, 14(5) (pp. 1459-1474)

An Introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank (2020)
Turchin, P; Whitehouse, H; Francois, P; Hoyer, D; Alves, A; Baines, J; Baker, D; Bartokiak, M; Bates, J; Bennet, J; Bidmead, J; Bol, P; Ceccarelli, A; Christakis, K; Christian, D; Covey, A; De Angelis, F; Earle, TK; Edwards, N; Feinman, G; Grohmann, S; Holden, P; Juluisson, A; Korotayev, A; Kradin, N; Kristinsson, A; Larson, J; Litwin, O; Mair, V; Manning, JG; Manning, P; Marciniak, A; McMahon, G; Miksic, J; Garcia, JCM; Morris, I; Mostern, R; Mullins, D; Oyebamiji, O; Peregrine, P; Petrie, C; Prieser-Kapeller, J; Rudiak-Gould, P; Sabloff, P; Savage, P; Spencer, C; Stark, M; ter Haar, B; Thurner, S; Wallace, V; Wiroszek, N and Xie, L
Journal of Cognitive Historiography, 5 (pp. 115-123)

Quantitative genetics of body size evolution on islands: an individual-based simulation approach (2019-10-10)
Diniz-Filho, JAF; Jardim, L; Rangel, TF; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Hortal, J; Santos, AMC and Raia, P
Biology Letters, 15(10)

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to regional variability in particulate organic matter remineralization depths (2019-07-31)
Wilson, Jamie; Barker, Stephen; Edwards, Neil; Holden, Philip and Ridgwell, Andy
Biogeosciences, 16(14) (pp. 2923-2936)

Coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric CO2 decrease using a large ensemble of modern plausible parameter sets (2019-06-18)
Kemppinen, Krista M. S.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Ridgwell, Andy and Friend, Andrew D.
Climate of the Past, 15 (pp. 1039-1062)

System complexity and policy integration challenges: The Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus (2019-05)
Mercure, J-F.; Paim, M. A.; Bocquillon, P.; Lindner, S.; Salas, P.; Martinelli, P.; Berchin, I. I.; de Andrade Guerra, J. B. S. O.; Derani, C.; de Albuquerque Junior, C. L.; Ribeiro, J. M. P.; Knobloch, F.; Pollitt, H.; Edwards, N. R.; Holden, P. B.; Foley, A.; Schaphoff, S.; Faraco, R. A. and Vinuales, J. E.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 105 (pp. 230-243)

Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data (2019-02)
Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sóbester, András and Challenor, Peter
Climate Dynamics, 52(3-4) (pp. 1505-1531)

Producing Policy-relevant Science by Enhancing Robustness and Model Integration for the Assessment of Global Environmental Change (2019-01)
Warren, R. F.; Edwards, N. R.; Babonneau, F.; Bacon, P. M.; Dietrich, J. P.; Ford, R. W.; Garthwaite, P.; Gerten, D.; Goswami, S.; Haurie, A.; Hiscock, K.; Holden, P. B.; Hyde, M.R.; Joshi, S. R.; Kanudia, A.; Labriet, M.; Leimbach, M.; Oyebamiji, O. K.; Osborn, T.; Pizzileo, B.; Popp, A.; Price, J.; Riley, G.; Schaphoff, S.; Slavin, P.; Vielle, M. and Wallace, C.
Environmental Modelling & Software, 111 (pp. 248-258)

Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability (2019)
Edwards, Tamsin L.; Brandon, Mark A.; Durand, Gael; Edwards, Neil R. and ,
Nature, 566 (pp. 58-64)

Beyond carbon pricing: policy levers for negative emissions technologies (2019)
Cox, Emily and Edwards, Neil
Climate Policy, 19(9) (pp. 1144-1156)

Mainstreaming the Water-Energy-Food Nexus through nationally determined contributions (NDCs): the case of Brazil (2019)
Paim, M-A.; Salas, P.; Lindner, S.; Pollitt, H.; Mercure, J-F.; Edwards, N. R. and Viñuales, J. E.
Climate Policy, 20(2) (pp. 163-178)

PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate (2019)
Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Rangel, Thiago F.; Pereira, Elisa B.; Tran, Giang T. and Wllkinson, Richard D.
Geoscientific Model Development, 12(12) (pp. 5137-5155)

Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves (2018-07-20)
Rangel, Thiago F.; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B.; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Gosling, William D.; Coelho, Marco Túlio P.; Cassemiro, Fernanda A. S. and Colwell, Robert K.
Science, 361, Article eaar5452(6399)

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets (2018-07)
Mercure, J.-F.; Pollitt, H.; Viñuales, J. E.; Edwards, N. R.; Holden, P. B.; Chewpreecha, U.; Salas, P.; Sognnaess, I.; Lam, A. and Knobloch, F.
Nature Climate Change, 8 (pp. 588-593)

Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement (2018-07)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Ridgwell, A.; Wilkinson, R. D.; Fraedrich, K.; Lunkeit, F.; Pollitt, H. E.; Mercure, J. -F.; Salas, P.; Lam, A.; Knobloch, F.; Chewpreecha, U. and Viñuales, J. E.
Nature Climate Change, 8 (pp. 609-613)

Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE (2018-04)
Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollitt, Hector; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B.; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Salas, Pablo; Lam, Aileen; Knobloch, Florian and Vinuales, Jorge E.
Energy Strategy Reviews, 20 (pp. 195-208)

Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO2 and orbital variability (2018-02-23)
Keery, John S.; Holden, Philip B. and Edwards, Neil R.
Climate of the Past, 14 (pp. 215-238)

Smart Cities and M3: Rapid Research, Meaningful Metrics and Co-Design (2018-02)
Bell, Simon; Benatti, Francesca; Edwards, Neil R.; Laney, Robin; Morse, David R.; Piccolo, Lara and Zanetti, Oliver
Systemic Practice and Action Research, 31(1) (pp. 27-53)

Physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise: a coupled GIS and CGE analysis under uncertainties (2016-12)
Joshi, Santosh R.; Vielle, Marc; Babonneau, F; Edwards, Neil R. and Holden, Philip B.
Environmental and Resource Economics, 65(4) (pp. 813-839)

PLASIM–GENIE v1.0: a new intermediate complexity AOGCM (2016-09-21)
Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Fraedrich, Klaus; Kirk, Edilbert; Lunkeit, Frank and Zhu, Xiuhua
Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (pp. 3347-3361)

Building a traceable climate model hierarchy with multi-level emulators (2016-04-18)
Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Sóbester, András; Toal, David J. J.; Holden, Philip B.; Marsh, Robert; Challenor, Peter and Edwards, Neil R.
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2(1) (pp. 17-37)

Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy (2016-03-31)
Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollitt, Hector; Bassi, Andrea M.; Viñuales, Jorge E. and Edwards, Neil R.
Global Environmental Change, 37 (pp. 102-115)

Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector (2016-02-15)
Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Mercure, J-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H. and Chewpreecha, U.
Earth System Dynamics, 7(1) (pp. 119-132)

Emulating global climate change impacts on crop yields (2015-12-01)
Oyebamiji, Oluwole K.; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B.; Garthwaite, Paul H.; Schaphoff, Sibyll and Gerten, Dieter
Statistical Modelling, 15(6) (pp. 499-525)

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling (2015-10)
Labriet, Maryse; Joshi, Santosh R.; Vielle, Marc; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard and Babonneau, Frédéric
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20(7) (pp. 1111-1136)

Agricultural productivity in past societies: toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses (2015-07)
Currie, Thomas E.; Bogaard, Amy; Cesaretti, Rudolf; Edwards, Neil R.; Francois, Pieter; Holden, Philip B.; Hoyer, Daniel; Korotayev, Andrey; Manning, Joe; Garcia, Juan Carlos Moreno; Oyebamiji, Oluwole K.; Petrie, Cameron; Turchin, Peter; Whitehouse, Harvey and Williams, Alice
Cliodynamics, 6(1) (pp. 24-56)

Emulation and interpretation of high-dimensional climate model outputs (2015)
Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Garthwaite, Paul H. and Wilkinson, Richard D.
Journal of Applied Statistics, 42(9) (pp. 2038-2055)

The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector (2014-10-31)
Mercure, J. F.; Pollitt, H.; Chepreecha, U.; Salas, P.; Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R.
Energy Policy, 73 (pp. 686-700)

Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity (2014-04-16)
Urban, Nathan M.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sriver, Ryan L. and Keller, Klaus
Geophysical Research Letters, 41(7) (pp. 2543-2552)

PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment (2014-02-26)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R,; Garthwaite, P. H.; Fraedrich, K.; Lunkeit, F.; Kirk, E.; Labriet, M.; Kanudia, A. and Babonneau, F.
Geoscientific Model Development, 7 (pp. 433-451)

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: an EMIC intercomparison (2013-08)
Zickfeld, Kirsten; Eby, Michael; Alexander, Kaitlin; Weaver, Andrew J.; Crespin, Elisabeth; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B.; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Feulner, Georg; Kienert, Hendrik; Perrette, Mahé; Schneider von Deimling, Thomas; Forest, Chris E.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Kawamiya, Michio; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Kicklighter, David; Monier, Erwan; Schlosser, Adam; Sokolov, Andrei; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Tokos, Kathy S.; Olsen, Steffen M.; Pedersen, Jens O. P.; Ridgwell, Andy; Shaffer, Gary; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Zeng, Ning and Zhao, Fang
Journal of Climate, 26(6) (pp. 5782-5809)

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (2013-05-15)
Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.; Zickfeld, K.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Cimatoribus, A. A.; Crespin, E.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Edwards, N. R.; Eliseev, A. V.; Feulner, G.; Fichefet, T.; Forest, C. E.; Goosse, H.; Holden, P. B.; Joos, F.; Kawamiya, M.; Kicklighter, D.; Kienert, H.; Matsumoto, K.; Mokhov, I. I.; Monier, E.; Olsen, S. M.; Pedersen, J. O. P.; Perrette, M.; Philippon-Berthier, G.; Ridgwell, A.; Schlosser, A.; Schneider von Deimling, T.; Shaffer, G.; Smith, R. S.; Spahni, R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Steinacher, M.; Tachiiri, K.; Tokos, K.; Yoshimori, M.; Zeng, N. and Zhao, F.
Climate of the Past, 9 (pp. 1111-1140)

Controls on the spatial distribution of oceanic δ13CDIC (2013-03-19)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Müller, S. A.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Death, R. M. and Ridgwell, A.
Biogeosciences, 10(3) (pp. 1815-1833)

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis (2013-03-08)
Joos, F.; Roth, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Peters, G. P.; Enting, I. G.; von Bloh, W.; Brovkin, V.; Burke, E. J.; Eby, M.; Edwards, N. R.; Friedrich, T.; Fröhlicher, T. L.; Halloran, P. R.; Holden, P. B.; Jones, C.; Kleinen, T.; Mackenzie, F. T.; Matsumoto, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Reisinger, A.; Segschneider, J.; Shaffer, G.; Steinacher, M.; Strassmann, K.; Tanaka, K.; Timmermann, A. and Weaver, A. J.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13(5) (pp. 2793-2825)

A model-based constraint on CO2 fertilisation (2013-01-23)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Gerten, D. and Schaphoff, S.
Biogeosciences, 10(1) (pp. 339-355)

Incorporation of the C-GOLDSTEIN efficient climate model into the GENIE framework: “eb_go_gs” configurations of GENIE (2011-11-15)
Marsh, R.; Müller, S.A.; Yool, A and Edwards, N.R.
Geoscientific Model Development, 4 (pp. 957-992)

Mitigation: Plausible mitigation targets (2011-10-23)
Edwards, Neil R
Nature Climate Change, 1 (pp. 395-396)

High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (2011-07-18)
Balan Sarojini, B.; Gregory, J. M.; Tailleux, R.; Bigg, G. R.; Blaker, A. T.; Cameron, D. R.; Edwards, N. R.; Megann, A. P.; Shaffrey, L. C. and Sinha, B.
Ocean Science, 7 (pp. 471-486)

The Mid-Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability (2011-07)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Wolff, E. W.; Valdes, P. J. and Singarayer, J. S.
Journal of Quaternary Science, 26(5) (pp. 474-477)

Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system (2011-01)
Bahn, Olivier; Edwards, Neil R.; Knutti, Reto and Stocker, Thomas F.
Energy policy, 39(1) (pp. 334-348)

Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model (2011)
Edwards, Neil; Cameron, David and Rougier, Jonathan
Climate Dynamics, 37(7-8) (pp. 1469-1482)

A multi-variable box model approach to the soft tissue carbon pump (2010-12-21)
de Boer, A. M.; Watson, A. J. and Edwards, N. R.
Climate of the Past, 6 (pp. 827-841)

Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling (2010-11-11)
Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R.
Geophysical Research Letters, 37(21) (L21707)

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials (2010-07-16)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Wolff, E. W.; Lang, N. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Valdes, P. J. and Stocker, T. F.
Climate of the Past, 6(4) (pp. 431-443)

Meridional density gradients do not control the Atlantic overturning circulation (2010-02)
de Boer, Agatha M.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Edwards, Neil R. and Watson, Andrew J.
Journal of Physical Oceanography, 40(2) (pp. 368-380)

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1 (2010)
Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, N. R.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Lenton, T. M. and Wilkinson, R. D.
Climate Dynamics, 35(5) (pp. 785-806)

A synthesis of marine sediment core δ13C data over the last 150 000 years (2010)
Oliver, K. I. C.; Hoogakker, B. A. A.; Crowhurst, S.; Henderson, G. M.; Rickaby, R. E. M.; Edwards, N. R. and Elderfield, H.
Climate of the Past, 6, (pp. 645-673)

Modelled natural and excess radiocarbon: Sensitivities to the gas exchange formulation and ocean transport strength (2008-08)
Mueller, S. A.; Joos, F.; Plattner, G.-K.; Edwards, N. R. and Stocker, T. F.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22(GB3011) (pp. 1-14)

Long-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle models (2008-06-15)
Plattner, G.-K.; Knutti, R.; Joos, F.; Stocker, T. F.; von Bloh, W.; Brovkin, V.; Cameron, D.; Driesschaert, E.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Eby, M.; Edwards, N. R.; Fichefet, T.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Jones, C. D.; Loutre, M. F.; Matthews, H. D.; Mouchet, A.; Muller, S. A.; Nawrath, S.; Price, A.; Sokolov, A.; Strassman, K. M. and Weaver, A. J.
Journal of Climate, 21(12) (pp. 2721-2751)

Location of potential energy sources and the export of dense water from the Atlantic Ocean (2008)
Oliver, K. I. C. and Edwards, N. R.
Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (L22604)

A wavelet-coefficient score for comparison of two-dimensional climatic-data fields (2008)
Livina, V. N.; Edwards, N. R.; Goswami, S. and Lenton, T. M.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134(633) (pp. 941-955)

Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework (2007-11)
Lenton, T. M.; Marsh, R.; Price, A. R.; Lunt, D. J.; Aksenov, Y.; Annan, J. D.; Cooper-Chadwick, T.; Cox, S. J.; Edwards, N. R.; Goswami, S.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Harris, P. P.; Jiao, Z.; Livina, V. N.; Payne, A. J.; Rutt, I. C.; Shepherd, J. G.; Valdes, P. J.; Williams, G.; Williamson, M. S. and Yool, A.
Climate Dynamics, 29(6) (pp. 591-613)

Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling (2007-01-25)
Ridgwell, A.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Edwards, N. R.; Annan, J. D.; Lenton, T. M.; Marsh, R.; Yool, A. and Watson, A.
Biogeosciences, 4(1) (pp. 87-104)

Modeling the relationship between 231Pa/230Th distribution in North Atlantic sediment and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (2007)
Siddall, Mark; Stocker, Thomas F.; Henderson, Gideon M.; Joos, Fortunat; Frank, Martin; Edwards, Neil R.; Ritz, Stefan P. and Muller, Simon A.
Paleoceanography, 22(PA2214)

The coupling of optimal economic growth and climate dynamics (2006-11)
Bahn, Olivier; Drouet, Laurent; Edwards, Neil R.; Haurie, Alain; Knutti, Reto; Kypreos, Socrates; Stocker, Thomas F. and Vial, Jean-Philippe
Climatic Change, 79(1-2) (pp. 103-119)

Water mass distribution and ventilation time scales in a cost-efficient, 3-dimensional ocean model (2006-11)
Müller, S. A.; Joos, F.; Edwards, N. R. and Stocker, T. F.
Journal of Climate, 19(21) (pp. 5479-5499)

An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for Earth system modelling (2006-10)
Williamson, M. S.; Lenton, T. M.; Shepherd, J. G. and Edwards, N. R.
Ecological Modelling, 198(3-4) (pp. 362-374)

Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model (2006-06)
Lenton, T.M.; Williamson, M.S.; Edwards, N.R.; Marsh, R.; Price, A.R.; Ridgwell, A.J.; Shepherd, J.G. and The, GENIE Team
Climate Dynamics, 26(7-8) (pp. 687-711)

Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: a convex optimization approach (2006)
Drouet, L.; Edwards, N. R. and Haurie, A.
Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 11(2) (pp. 101-114)

231Pa/230Th fractionation by ocean transport, biogenic particle flux and particle type (2005-08-30)
Siddall, Mark; Henderson, Gideon M.; Edwards, Neil R.; Frank, Martin; Muller, Simon A.; Stocker, Thomas F. and Joos, Fortunat
Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 237(1-2) (pp. 135-155)

Focusing of an inertia - gravity wave packet by a baroclinic shear flow (2005-06)
Edwards, N. R. and Staquet, C.
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 40(1-2) (pp. 91-113)

Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model (2005-03)
Edwards, Neil R. and Marsh, Robert
Climate Dynamics, 24(4) (pp. 415-433)

Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter (2005)
Annan, J.D.; Hargreaves, J.C.; Edwards, N.R. and Marsh, R.
Ocean Modelling, 8(1-2) (pp. 135-154)

Oracle-based optimization applied to climate model calibration (2005)
Beltran, Cesar; Edwards, N. R.; Haurie, A. B.; Vial, J. P. and Zachary, D. S.
Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 11(1) (pp. 31-43)

An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter (2004-12)
Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Edwards, N. R. and Marsh, R.
Climate Dynamics, 23(7-8) (pp. 745-760)

Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model (2004-12)
Marsh, R.; Yool, A.; Lenton, T. M.; Gulamali, M. Y.; Edwards, N .R.; Shepherd, J. G.; Krznaric, M.; Newhouse, S. and Cox, S. J.
Climate Dynamics, 23(7-8) (pp. 761-777)

Similar meltwater contributions to glacial sea level changes from Antarctic and northern ice sheets (2004-08-26)
Rohling, Eelco J.; Marsh, Robert; Wells, Neil C.; Siddall, Mark and Edwards, Neil R.
Nature, 430(7003) (pp. 1016-1021)

Nonlinear double-diffusive intrusions at the equator (2004-03-01)
Edwards, N. R. and Richards, K. J.
Journal of Marine Research, 62(2) (pp. 233-259)

ABC for Climate: Dealing with Expensive Simulators (2018-09)
Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Hensman, James and Wilkinson, Richard
In: Sisson, Scott A.; Fan, Yanan and Beaumont, Mark A. eds. Handbook of Approximate Bayesian computation
ISBN : 9781439881514 | Publisher : Chapman and Hall

Fairness in climate negotiations: a meta-game analysis based on community integrated assessment (2015-01-15)
Haurie, Alain; Babonneau, Frederic; Edwards, Neil; Holden, Philip; Kanudia, Amit; Labriet, Maryse; Pizzileo, Barbara and Vielle, Marc
In: Bernard, Lucas ed. The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming (pp. 170-203)
ISBN : 978-0-19-985697-8 | Publisher : OUP USA | Published : New York

Assessing climate impacts on the energy sector with TIAM-WORLD: focus on heating and cooling and hydropower potential (2015-01-01)
Labriet, Maryse; Biberacher, Marcus; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Kanudia, Amit and Loulou, Richard
In: Giannakidis, George; Labriet, Maryse; O Gallachoir, Brian and Tosato, GianCarlo eds. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models: Insights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base. Lecture Notes in Energy (30) (pp. 389-409)
ISBN : 978-3-319-16539-4 | Publisher : Springer International Publishing | Published : Cham

Linking climate and economic dynamics (2005)
Edwards, Neil; Greppin, Hubert; Haurie, Alain and Viguier, Laurent
In: Haurie, Alain and Viguier, Laurent eds. The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics: Essays on Integrated Assessment. Advances In Global Change Research (22) (pp. 1-34)
ISBN : 1402034245 | Publisher : Springer | Published : Dordrecht, Netherlands

An Oracle method to couple climate and economic dynamics (2005)
Beltran, Cesar; Drouet, Laurent; Edwards, Neil; Haurie, Alain; Vial, Jean-Philippe and Zachary, Daniel
In: Haurie, Alain and Viguier, Laurent eds. The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics. Advances In Global Change Research (22) (pp. 69-95)
ISBN : 9781402034251 | Publisher : 2005 Springer | Published : Dordrecht, Netherlands

Multiobjective tuning of grid-enabled Earth system models using a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) (2006)
Price, A. R.; Voutchkov, I. I.; Pound, G. E.; Edwards, N. R.; Lenton, T. M.; Cox, S. J. and The GENIE team,
In : 2nd International Conference on eScience and Grid Computing (04-06 Dec 2006, Amsterdam, Netherlands)