The Open University

Professional biography

Phil completed his DPhil in computational modelling of X-ray lasers in 1991 from the University of York, after which he held research positions in the University of York, Université Paris-Sud and the Czech Institute of Physics. He then spent ten years in the finance sector, designing and modelling approximately $2 billion of asset financings in the transport sector. He returned to academia via an MSc in Quaternary Science from the University of London (RHUL/UCL) in 2006. He joined the Open University in 2007, initially as a post doctoral researcher on glacial-interglacial cycles. Phil's main focus is the development of computationally efficient Earth system models, with particular focus on interdisciplinary model coupling applications, integrated assessment and uncertainty quantification. He has authored 83 peer-reviewed papers (July 2024), including 15 in Nature and Science journals.

Research interests

Phone: +44 7095 351 332

Science Applications

● Energy transition modelling

● Interdisciplinary studies in ecology and anthropology

● Future and paleo climate-carbon cycle dynamics and uncertainties

● Bayesian calibrations of climate sensitivity, future sea-level rise and CO₂fertilisation

● Paleoclimate reconstruction from microfossil assemblages

● Contributed simulations for IPCC AR5 and AR6

Model development

● FRANTIC network: financial shock propagation through the global equity ownership network

● PLASIM-GENIE: Intermediate complexity Atmosphere-Ocean-Carbon-Cycle GCM

● PALEO-PGEM: Pliocene-Pleistocene climate emulator for coupling applications

● ENTSML: managed land use model

● PLASIM-ENTSem: future climate emulator for integrated assessment applications

● GENIEem: future carbon-cycle emulator for integrated assessment applications

● BUMPER: Bayesian paleoclimate reconstruction from microfossils

● MEMLM: Multi Ensemble Machine Learning Model (paleoclimate reconstruction from microfossils)

Methodological Development

● Emulating high-dimensional inputs and outputs

● Emulator-filtered ABC/history matching

Selected recent publications

Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies, Semieniuk et al, Nature Climate Change (2022)

A stronger role for long-term moisture change than for CO₂ in determining tropical woody vegetation change, Gosling et al, Science (2022)

Reframing incentives for climate policy action, Mercure et al, Nature Energy (2021)

Tectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution, Thomson et al, Nature Communications (2021)

Late Quaternary dynamics of Arctic biota from ancient environmental genomics, Wang et al, Nature (2021)

Past extinctions of Homo species coincided with increased vulnerability to climatic change, Raia et al, One Earth, 3, 480-490 (2020)

Potential for large-scale CO₂ removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands, Beerling et al, Nature (2020)

Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability, Edwards et al, Nature (2019)

Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves, Rangel et al, Science (2018)

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets, Mercure et al, Nature Climate Change (2018)

Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement, Holden et al, Nature Climate Change (2018)

Teaching interests

Current teaching

S831: Earth and Environmental Science Challenges (co-Chair, author "Climate change")

S319: Geology and Sustainability (Module team, author "Earth's climate system")

S397: Terrestrial Ecosystems (Module team, author "Interpedendence")

S350: Evaluating Contemporary Science (Module team, "Evaluating data in contemporary science")

Past teaching

S808: Earth Science: a Systems Approach (Chair)

S396: Ecosystems (Module team)

S250: Science in Context (Module team)

U216: Environment (Tutor marked assignments)

S279: Our Dynamic Planet (Tutor marked assignments)

Research groups

Name	Type	Parent Unit
Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research (CEPSAR)	Centre	Faculty of Science

Externally funded projects

Plausible policy pathways to Paris

Role	Start date	End date	Funding source
Co-investigator	31 Oct 2016	31 Jul 2018	NERC Natural Environment Research Council
The Paris agreement commits nations to pursuing efforts to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. This represents a level of transformation of the socio-economic and energy systems that substantially exceeds the scenarios that have been found using most conventional integrated assessment models (IAMs) based on equilibrium assumptions. Such strong mitigation also violates the pattern scaling assumptions used to derive environmental impacts in IAMs because of the rapid reversal in emissions growth. We will use a new, fully dynamic IAM that does not rely on equilibrium or pattern scaling assumptions to provide a set of more realistic dynamic pathways to reach the 1.5 degree target. The assessment will identify policy options and the degree of negative emissions required.

Bayesian User-friendly Multi-Proxy Environmental Reconstructions (resubmission)

Role	Start date	End date	Funding source
Lead	01 Jan 2016	31 Dec 2016	University of Exeter
BUMPER is an “embedded research” project, aimed towards strengthening interdisciplinary connections and funded by ReCoVER (Research on Changes of Variability and Environmental Risk). The project addresses transfer functions, widely used tools to infer past climate from microfossil assemblages preserved in lake and ocean sediments. In collaboration with ecologists at the Florida Institute of Technology and NIMBioS (National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee), BUMPER is developing a computationally-fast Bayesian transfer function to produce a user-friendly tool for paleoecologists. The principal motivation for developing a Bayesian approach is the calculation of reconstruction-specific uncertainty that, for instance, greatly increases the power of multi-proxy reconstructions.

Quantifying Uncertainty in ANTarctic Ice Sheet instability

Role	Start date	End date	Funding source
Co-investigator	01 Aug 2015	31 Jan 2016	University of Exeter
Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica. If this is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are either too low in spatial resolution to explicitly resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modeling uncertainties. The proposed work brings together and analyses two new datasets that complement each other in model complexity – a large ensemble generated with a low resolution model, and a small ensemble from a high resolution model – by constructing a new emulator of the relationship between them.

Publications

Journal articles

A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios (2024)
Asselot, Rémy; Holden, Philip; Lunkeit, Frank and Hense, Inga
Earth System Dynamics, 15 (pp. 875-891)

Potential pension fund losses should not deter high-income countries from bold climate action (2023-07-19)
Semieniuk, Gregor; Chancel, Lucas; Saïsset, Eulalie; Holden, Philip B.; Mercure, Jean-Francois and Edwards, Neil R.
Joule, 7(7) (pp. 1383-1387)

PALEO-PGEM-Series: A spatial time series of the global climate over the last 5 million years (Plio-Pleistocene) (2023-07)
Barreto, Elisa; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R. and Rangel, Thiago F.
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 32(7) (pp. 1034-1045)

Reply to: When did mammoths go extinct? (2022-11-30)
Wang, Yucheng; Prohaska, Ana; Dong, Haoran; Alberti, Adriana; Alsos, Inger Greve; Beilman, David W.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Cao, Jialu; Cherezova, Anna A.; Coissac, Eric; De Sanctis, Bianca; Denoeud, France; Dockter, Christoph; Durbin, Richard; Edwards, Mary E.; Edwards, Neil R.; Esdale, Julie; Fedorov, Grigory B.; Fernandez-Guerra, Antonio; Froese, Duane G.; Gusarova, Galina; Haile, James; Holden, Philip B.; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Kjær, Kurt H.; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Lammers, Youri; Larsen, Nicolaj Krog; Macleod, Ruairidh; Mangerud, Jan; McColl, Hugh; Merkel, Marie Kristine Føreid; Money, Daniel; Möller, Per; Nogués-Bravo, David; Orlando, Ludovic; Owens, Hannah Lois; Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Racimo, Fernando; Rahbek, Carsten; Rasic, Jeffrey T.; Rouillard, Alexandra; Ruter, Anthony H.; Skadhauge, Birgitte; Svendsen, John Inge; Tikhonov, Alexei; Vinner, Lasse; Wincker, Patrick; Xing, Yingchun; Zhang, Yubin; Meltzer, David J. and Willerslev, Eske
Nature, 612 (E4-E6)

Impact of negative and positive CO₂ emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations (2022-09-08)
Vakilifard, Negar; Williams, Richard G.; Holden, Philip; Turner, Katherine; Edwards, Neil R. and Beerling, David J.
Biogeosciences, 19 (pp. 4249-4265)

Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies (2022-06)
Semieniuk, G.; Holden, Philip B.; Mercure, J.-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H.; Jobson, K.; Vercoulen, P.; Chewpreecha, U.; Edwards, Neil R. and Viñuales, J. E.
Nature Climate Change, 12(6) (pp. 532-538)

Fossil-fuel stranded asset risks held by individuals in OECD countries and non-OECD governments (2022-06)
Semieniuk, G and Holden, Philip
Nature Climate Change, 12(6) (pp. 510-511)

A stronger role for long-term moisture change than for CO₂ in determining tropical woody vegetation change (2022-05-06)
Gosling, W. D.; Miller, C. S.; Shanahan, T. M.; Holden, Philip B.; Overpeck, J. T. and van Langeveld, F.
Science, 376(6593) (pp. 635-656)

Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom (2022-05)
Kantzas, E. P.; Val Martin, M.; Lomas, M. R.; Eufrasio, R. M.; Renforth, P.; Lewis, A. L.; Taylor, L. L.; Mercure, J.-F.; Pollitt, H.; Vercoulen, P. V.; Vakilifard, N.; Holden, P.; Edwards, N.; Koh, L.; Pidgeon, N. F.; Banwart, S. A. and Beerling, D. J.
Nature Geoscience, 15(5) (pp. 382-389)

Environmental and health impacts of atmospheric CO₂ removal by enhanced rock weathering depend on nations’ energy mix (2022-05)
Eufrasio, Rafael M.; Kantzas, Euripides P.; Edwards, Neil. R.; Holden, Philip B.; Pollitt, Hector; Mercure, Jean-Francois; Koh, S. C. Lenny and Beerling, David J.
Communications Earth & Environment, 3, Article 106(1)

Quantifying the Impact of Bedrock Topography Uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier Projections for This Century (2022-03-28)
Wernecke, Andreas; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R. and Cornford, Stephen L.
Geophysical Research Letters, 49, Article e2021GL096589(6)

Climate pathways behind phytoplankton-induced atmospheric warming (2022-01-14)
Asselot, Rémy; Lunkeit, Frank; Holden, Philip B. and Hense, Inga
Biogeosciences, 19(1) (pp. 223-239)

Late Quaternary dynamics of Arctic biota from ancient environmental genomics (2021-12-02)
Wang, Yucheng; Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Alsos, Inger Greve; De Sanctis, Bianca; Racimo, Fernando; Prohaska, Ana; Colssac, Eric; Owens, Hannah Lois; Merkel, Marie Kristine Føreid; Fernandez-Guerra, Antonio; Rouillard, Alexandra; Lammers, Youri; Alberti, Adriana; Denoeud, France; Money, Daniel; Ruter, Anthony H.; McColl, Hugh; Larsen, Nicolaj Krog; Cherezova, Anna A.; Edwards, Mary E.; Fedorov, Grigory B.; Halle, James; Orlando, Ludovic; Vinner, Lasse; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Bellman, David W.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Cao, Jialu; Dockter, Christoph; Esdale, Julie; Gusarova, Galina; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Mangerud, Jan; Rasic, Jeffrey T.; Skadhauge, Birgitte; Svendsen, John Inge; Tikhonov, Alexei; Wincker, Patrick; Xing, Yingchun; Zhang, Yubin; Froese, Duane G.; Rahbek, Carsten; Nogués-Bravo, David; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Durbin, Richard; Meltzer, David J.; Kjaer, Kurt H.; Möller, Per and Willerslev, Eske
Nature, 600 (pp. 86-92)

The role of habitat fragmentation in Pleistocene megafauna extinction in Eurasia (2021-11)
Mondanaro, Alessandro; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Melchionna, Marina; Maiorano, Luigi; Di Marco, Moreno; Edwards, Neil; Holden, Philip; Castiglione, Silvia; Rook, Lorenzo and Raia, Pasquale
Ecography, 44(11) (pp. 1619-1630)

Tectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution (2021-06-29)
Thomson, James R.; Holden, Philip B.; Anand, Pallavi; Edwards, Neil R.; Porchier, Cécile A. and Harris, Nigel B. W.
Nature Communications, Article 4022(12)

An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank (2021-06-01)
Turchin, P.; Currie, T.; Collins, C.; Levine, J.; Oyebamiji, O.; Edwards, N.; Holden, P.; Hoyer, D.; Feeney, K.; François, P. and Whitehouse, H.
The Holocene, 31(6) (pp. 1055-1065)

The Relative Importance of Phytoplankton Light Absorption and Ecosystem Complexity in an Earth System Model (2021-05-17)
Asselot, Rémy; Lunkeit, Frank; Holden, Philip B. and Hense, Inga
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13, Article e2020MS002110(5)

Dipole patterns in tropical precipitation were pervasive across landmasses throughout Marine Isotope Stage 5 (2021-03)
Nilsson-Kerr, Katrina; Anand, Pallavi; Holden, Philip B.; Clemens, Steven C. and Leng, Melanie J.
Communications Earth & Environment, 2, Article 64

The role of enhanced rock weathering deployment with agriculture in limiting future warming and protecting coral reefs (2021)
Vakilifard, Negar; Kantzas, Euripides P.; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B. and Beerling, David J.
Environmental Research Letters, 16, Article 94005(9)

Reframing incentives for climate policy action (2021)
Mercure, J.-F.; Salas, P.; Vercoulen, P.; Semieniuk, G.; Lam, A.; Pollitt, H.; Holden, P. B.; Vakilifard, N.; Chewpreecha, U.; Edwards, N. R. and Vinuales, J. E.
Nature Energy, 6 (pp. 1133-1143)

A major change in rate of climate niche envelope evolution during hominid history (2020-11-20)
Mondanaro, Alessandro; Melchiona, Marina; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Castiglione, Silvia; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Carotenuto, Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi; Modafferi, Maria; Serio, Carmela; Diniz-Filho, Josè A.F.; Rangel, Thiago; Rook, Lorenzo; O'Higgins, Paul; Spikins, Penny; Profico, Antonia and Raia, Pasquale
iScience, 23, Article 101693(11)

Past extinctions of Homo species coincided with increased vulnerability to climatic change (2020-10-15)
Raia, Pasquale; Mondanaro, Alessandro; Melchionna, Marina; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Diniz-Filho, Jose A F; Rangel, Thiago F; Holden, Philip B; Carotenuto, Francesco; Edwards, Neil R; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Profico, Antonio; Maiorano, Luigi; Castiglione, Silvia; Serio, Carmela and Rook, Lorenzo
One Earth, 3(4) (pp. 480-490)

Potential for large-scale CO₂ removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands (2020-07-09)
Beerling, David J.; Kantzas, Euripides P.; Lomas, Mark R.; Wade, Peter; Eufrasio, Rafael M.; Renforth, Phil; Sarkar, Binoy; Andrews, M. Grace; James, Rachael H.; Pearce, Christopher R.; Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollitt, Hector; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Khanna, Madhu; Koh, Lenny; Quegan, Shaun; Pidgeon, Nick F.; Janssens, Ivan A.; Hansen, James and Banwart, Steven A.
Nature, 583 (pp. 242-248)

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO₂ (2020-06-15)
MacDougall, Andrew H.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Jones, Chris D.; Rogel, Joeri; Matthews, H. Damon; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Arora, Vivek K.; Barrett, Noah J.; Brovkin, Victor; Burger, Friedrich A.; Eby, Michael; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Hajima, Tomohiro; Holden, Philip B.; Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich; Koven, Charles; Mengis, Nadine; Menviel, Laurie; Michou, Martine; Mokhov, Igor I.; Oka, Akira; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Shaffer, Gary; Sokolov, Andrei; Tachiir, Kaoru; Tjiputra, Jerry; Wiltshire, Andrew and Ziehn, Tilo
Biogeosciences, 17 (pp. 2987-3016)

Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data (2020-05-05)
Wernecke, Andreas; Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Nias, Isabel and Edwards, Neil
The Cryosphere, 14(5) (pp. 1459-1474)

An Introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank (2020)
Turchin, P; Whitehouse, H; Francois, P; Hoyer, D; Alves, A; Baines, J; Baker, D; Bartokiak, M; Bates, J; Bennet, J; Bidmead, J; Bol, P; Ceccarelli, A; Christakis, K; Christian, D; Covey, A; De Angelis, F; Earle, TK; Edwards, N; Feinman, G; Grohmann, S; Holden, P; Juluisson, A; Korotayev, A; Kradin, N; Kristinsson, A; Larson, J; Litwin, O; Mair, V; Manning, JG; Manning, P; Marciniak, A; McMahon, G; Miksic, J; Garcia, JCM; Morris, I; Mostern, R; Mullins, D; Oyebamiji, O; Peregrine, P; Petrie, C; Prieser-Kapeller, J; Rudiak-Gould, P; Sabloff, P; Savage, P; Spencer, C; Stark, M; ter Haar, B; Thurner, S; Wallace, V; Wiroszek, N and Xie, L
Journal of Cognitive Historiography, 5 (pp. 115-123)

Quantitative genetics of body size evolution on islands: an individual-based simulation approach (2019-10-10)
Diniz-Filho, JAF; Jardim, L; Rangel, TF; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Hortal, J; Santos, AMC and Raia, P
Biology Letters, 15(10)

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO₂ to regional variability in particulate organic matter remineralization depths (2019-07-31)
Wilson, Jamie; Barker, Stephen; Edwards, Neil; Holden, Philip and Ridgwell, Andy
Biogeosciences, 16(14) (pp. 2923-2936)

Coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric CO2 decrease using a large ensemble of modern plausible parameter sets (2019-06-18)
Kemppinen, Krista M. S.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Ridgwell, Andy and Friend, Andrew D.
Climate of the Past, 15 (pp. 1039-1062)

System complexity and policy integration challenges: The Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus (2019-05)
Mercure, J-F.; Paim, M. A.; Bocquillon, P.; Lindner, S.; Salas, P.; Martinelli, P.; Berchin, I. I.; de Andrade Guerra, J. B. S. O.; Derani, C.; de Albuquerque Junior, C. L.; Ribeiro, J. M. P.; Knobloch, F.; Pollitt, H.; Edwards, N. R.; Holden, P. B.; Foley, A.; Schaphoff, S.; Faraco, R. A. and Vinuales, J. E.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 105 (pp. 230-243)

Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data (2019-02)
Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sóbester, András and Challenor, Peter
Climate Dynamics, 52(3-4) (pp. 1505-1531)

Producing Policy-relevant Science by Enhancing Robustness and Model Integration for the Assessment of Global Environmental Change (2019-01)
Warren, R. F.; Edwards, N. R.; Babonneau, F.; Bacon, P. M.; Dietrich, J. P.; Ford, R. W.; Garthwaite, P.; Gerten, D.; Goswami, S.; Haurie, A.; Hiscock, K.; Holden, P. B.; Hyde, M.R.; Joshi, S. R.; Kanudia, A.; Labriet, M.; Leimbach, M.; Oyebamiji, O. K.; Osborn, T.; Pizzileo, B.; Popp, A.; Price, J.; Riley, G.; Schaphoff, S.; Slavin, P.; Vielle, M. and Wallace, C.
Environmental Modelling & Software, 111 (pp. 248-258)

Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability (2019)
Edwards, Tamsin L.; Brandon, Mark A.; Durand, Gael; Edwards, Neil R. and ,
Nature, 566 (pp. 58-64)

PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate (2019)
Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Rangel, Thiago F.; Pereira, Elisa B.; Tran, Giang T. and Wllkinson, Richard D.
Geoscientific Model Development, 12(12) (pp. 5137-5155)

Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves (2018-07-20)
Rangel, Thiago F.; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B.; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Gosling, William D.; Coelho, Marco Túlio P.; Cassemiro, Fernanda A. S. and Colwell, Robert K.
Science, 361, Article eaar5452(6399)

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets (2018-07)
Mercure, J.-F.; Pollitt, H.; Viñuales, J. E.; Edwards, N. R.; Holden, P. B.; Chewpreecha, U.; Salas, P.; Sognnaess, I.; Lam, A. and Knobloch, F.
Nature Climate Change, 8 (pp. 588-593)

Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement (2018-07)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Ridgwell, A.; Wilkinson, R. D.; Fraedrich, K.; Lunkeit, F.; Pollitt, H. E.; Mercure, J. -F.; Salas, P.; Lam, A.; Knobloch, F.; Chewpreecha, U. and Viñuales, J. E.
Nature Climate Change, 8 (pp. 609-613)

Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE (2018-04)
Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollitt, Hector; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B.; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Salas, Pablo; Lam, Aileen; Knobloch, Florian and Vinuales, Jorge E.
Energy Strategy Reviews, 20 (pp. 195-208)

Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO₂ and orbital variability (2018-02-23)
Keery, John S.; Holden, Philip B. and Edwards, Neil R.
Climate of the Past, 14 (pp. 215-238)

BUMPER v1.0: a Bayesian user-friendly model for palaeo-environmental reconstruction (2017-02-01)
Holden, Philip B.; Birks, H. John B.; Brooks, Steven J.; Bush, Mark B.; Hwang, Grace M.; Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Valencia, Bryan G. and van Woesik, Robert
Geoscientific Model Development, 10(1) (pp. 483-498)

Physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise: a coupled GIS and CGE analysis under uncertainties (2016-12)
Joshi, Santosh R.; Vielle, Marc; Babonneau, F; Edwards, Neil R. and Holden, Philip B.
Environmental and Resource Economics, 65(4) (pp. 813-839)

PLASIM–GENIE v1.0: a new intermediate complexity AOGCM (2016-09-21)
Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Fraedrich, Klaus; Kirk, Edilbert; Lunkeit, Frank and Zhu, Xiuhua
Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (pp. 3347-3361)

Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model (2016-06-01)
Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Brooks, Stephen J.; Holden, Philip B.; Montoya, Encarni and Gosling, William D.
Climate of the Past, 12 (pp. 1263-1280)

Building a traceable climate model hierarchy with multi-level emulators (2016-04-18)
Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Sóbester, András; Toal, David J. J.; Holden, Philip B.; Marsh, Robert; Challenor, Peter and Edwards, Neil R.
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2(1) (pp. 17-37)

Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector (2016-02-15)
Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Mercure, J-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H. and Chewpreecha, U.
Earth System Dynamics, 7(1) (pp. 119-132)

Emulating global climate change impacts on crop yields (2015-12-01)
Oyebamiji, Oluwole K.; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B.; Garthwaite, Paul H.; Schaphoff, Sibyll and Gerten, Dieter
Statistical Modelling, 15(6) (pp. 499-525)

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling (2015-10)
Labriet, Maryse; Joshi, Santosh R.; Vielle, Marc; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard and Babonneau, Frédéric
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20(7) (pp. 1111-1136)

Agricultural productivity in past societies: toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses (2015-07)
Currie, Thomas E.; Bogaard, Amy; Cesaretti, Rudolf; Edwards, Neil R.; Francois, Pieter; Holden, Philip B.; Hoyer, Daniel; Korotayev, Andrey; Manning, Joe; Garcia, Juan Carlos Moreno; Oyebamiji, Oluwole K.; Petrie, Cameron; Turchin, Peter; Whitehouse, Harvey and Williams, Alice
Cliodynamics, 6(1) (pp. 24-56)

Emulation and interpretation of high-dimensional climate model outputs (2015)
Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Garthwaite, Paul H. and Wilkinson, Richard D.
Journal of Applied Statistics, 42(9) (pp. 2038-2055)

The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector (2014-10-31)
Mercure, J. F.; Pollitt, H.; Chepreecha, U.; Salas, P.; Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R.
Energy Policy, 73 (pp. 686-700)

Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity (2014-04-16)
Urban, Nathan M.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sriver, Ryan L. and Keller, Klaus
Geophysical Research Letters, 41(7) (pp. 2543-2552)

PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment (2014-02-26)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R,; Garthwaite, P. H.; Fraedrich, K.; Lunkeit, F.; Kirk, E.; Labriet, M.; Kanudia, A. and Babonneau, F.
Geoscientific Model Development, 7 (pp. 433-451)

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: an EMIC intercomparison (2013-08)
Zickfeld, Kirsten; Eby, Michael; Alexander, Kaitlin; Weaver, Andrew J.; Crespin, Elisabeth; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle; Edwards, Neil R.; Holden, Philip B.; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Feulner, Georg; Kienert, Hendrik; Perrette, Mahé; Schneider von Deimling, Thomas; Forest, Chris E.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Kawamiya, Michio; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Kicklighter, David; Monier, Erwan; Schlosser, Adam; Sokolov, Andrei; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Tokos, Kathy S.; Olsen, Steffen M.; Pedersen, Jens O. P.; Ridgwell, Andy; Shaffer, Gary; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Zeng, Ning and Zhao, Fang
Journal of Climate, 26(6) (pp. 5782-5809)

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (2013-05-15)
Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.; Zickfeld, K.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Cimatoribus, A. A.; Crespin, E.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Edwards, N. R.; Eliseev, A. V.; Feulner, G.; Fichefet, T.; Forest, C. E.; Goosse, H.; Holden, P. B.; Joos, F.; Kawamiya, M.; Kicklighter, D.; Kienert, H.; Matsumoto, K.; Mokhov, I. I.; Monier, E.; Olsen, S. M.; Pedersen, J. O. P.; Perrette, M.; Philippon-Berthier, G.; Ridgwell, A.; Schlosser, A.; Schneider von Deimling, T.; Shaffer, G.; Smith, R. S.; Spahni, R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Steinacher, M.; Tachiiri, K.; Tokos, K.; Yoshimori, M.; Zeng, N. and Zhao, F.
Climate of the Past, 9 (pp. 1111-1140)

Controls on the spatial distribution of oceanic δ¹³C_DIC (2013-03-19)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Müller, S. A.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Death, R. M. and Ridgwell, A.
Biogeosciences, 10(3) (pp. 1815-1833)

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis (2013-03-08)
Joos, F.; Roth, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Peters, G. P.; Enting, I. G.; von Bloh, W.; Brovkin, V.; Burke, E. J.; Eby, M.; Edwards, N. R.; Friedrich, T.; Fröhlicher, T. L.; Halloran, P. R.; Holden, P. B.; Jones, C.; Kleinen, T.; Mackenzie, F. T.; Matsumoto, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Reisinger, A.; Segschneider, J.; Shaffer, G.; Steinacher, M.; Strassmann, K.; Tanaka, K.; Timmermann, A. and Weaver, A. J.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13(5) (pp. 2793-2825)

A model-based constraint on CO₂ fertilisation (2013-01-23)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Gerten, D. and Schaphoff, S.
Biogeosciences, 10(1) (pp. 339-355)

Precessional forcing of tropical vegetation carbon storage (2011-07)
Gosling, William D. and Holden, Philip B.
Journal of Quaternary Science, 26(5) (pp. 463-467)

The Mid-Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability (2011-07)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Wolff, E. W.; Valdes, P. J. and Singarayer, J. S.
Journal of Quaternary Science, 26(5) (pp. 474-477)

Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling (2010-11-11)
Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R.
Geophysical Research Letters, 37(21) (L21707)

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials (2010-07-16)
Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Wolff, E. W.; Lang, N. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Valdes, P. J. and Stocker, T. F.
Climate of the Past, 6(4) (pp. 431-443)

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1 (2010)
Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, N. R.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Lenton, T. M. and Wilkinson, R. D.
Climate Dynamics, 35(5) (pp. 785-806)

A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes (2008)
Holden, Philip; Mackay, Anson and Simpson, Gavin
Journal of Paleolimnology, 39(4) (pp. 551-566)

Book chapters

ABC for Climate: Dealing with Expensive Simulators (2018-09)
Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Hensman, James and Wilkinson, Richard
In: Sisson, Scott A.; Fan, Yanan and Beaumont, Mark A. eds. Handbook of Approximate Bayesian computation
ISBN : 9781439881514 | Publisher : Chapman and Hall

Fairness in climate negotiations: a meta-game analysis based on community integrated assessment (2015-01-15)
Haurie, Alain; Babonneau, Frederic; Edwards, Neil; Holden, Philip; Kanudia, Amit; Labriet, Maryse; Pizzileo, Barbara and Vielle, Marc
In: Bernard, Lucas ed. The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming (pp. 170-203)
ISBN : 978-0-19-985697-8 | Publisher : OUP USA | Published : New York

Assessing climate impacts on the energy sector with TIAM-WORLD: focus on heating and cooling and hydropower potential (2015-01-01)
Labriet, Maryse; Biberacher, Marcus; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Kanudia, Amit and Loulou, Richard
In: Giannakidis, George; Labriet, Maryse; O Gallachoir, Brian and Tosato, GianCarlo eds. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models: Insights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base. Lecture Notes in Energy (30) (pp. 389-409)
ISBN : 978-3-319-16539-4 | Publisher : Springer International Publishing | Published : Cham

Conference items

Dynamic responses of Indian Summer Monsoon variability during past warm intervals (2022-08)
Anand, Pallavi; Nilsson-Kerr, Katrina; Quamar, F; Holden, Philip; Leng, M. J.; Clemens, S. C. and Naidu, P. D.
In : ICP 14: 14th International Conference on Paleoceanography (29 Aug - 2 Sep 2022, Bergen, Norway)

Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics

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